MTL beat WSH 4–3 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ben Chiarot scored at 0:58 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Braden Holtby allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:29 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Nicklas Backstrom | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:43 | MTL | Shea Weber from Phillip Danault | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 17:03 | WSH | Lars Eller from Carl Hagelin, Richard Panik | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:37 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Brett Kulak | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 0:30 | MTL | Ben Chiarot from Tomas Tatar | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 19:39 | WSH | Tom WilsonPP from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 0:58 | MTL | Ben Chiarot from Max Domi, Jeff Petry | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Chiarot D | 28:05 | 2 | +1.80 | +0.14 | +1.69 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Weber D | 24:25 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 16:04 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.21 | +0.55 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 17:53 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:53 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.22 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 27:21 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.22 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Folin D | 13:31 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 14:58 | +0.01 | +0.24 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 13:53 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 24:52 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Xavier Ouellet D | 1:04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 16:24 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.22 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 13:51 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Weal C | 11:34 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:45 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 15:29 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:04 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Kovalchuk L | 16:48 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 60:58 | −0.07 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 15:30 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.06 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 22:31 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.16 | +0.65 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 16:23 | +0.25 | +0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 20:09 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 16:12 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 18:28 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.22 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 11:52 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michal Kempny D | 19:44 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 12:19 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 12:20 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 12:46 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 9:16 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:33 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 25:36 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 16:23 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:33 | −0.31 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:22 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 18:24 | 2 | −0.44 | −0.14 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 59:31 | −1.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.