MIN beat VAN 4–3 in a shootout. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Galchenyuk scored at 15:15 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 11% to 49%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:03 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Mathew Dumba | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 1:31 |  VAN | Jay Beagle from Quinn Hughes, Tyler Motte | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 13:03 | MIN | Luke Kunin from Brad Hunt, Mats Zuccarello | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 1:28 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Tyler Toffoli, Quinn Hughes | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 4:43 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Troy Stecher, Alexander Edler | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 15:15 | MIN | Alex Galchenyuk from Carson Soucy, Mats Zuccarello | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 14:23 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.02 | +0.62 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.02 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 13:23 | 2 | +1.10 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.02 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 9:05 | +0.41 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.67 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:05 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.43 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:26 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.60 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 17:45 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:52 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Hunt D | 14:27 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 24:55 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 17:20 | −0.09 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikko Koivu C | 13:06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 24:22 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:13 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 21:31 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:25 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 19:47 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 11:49 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 17:06 | −0.91 | −0.33 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 65:00 | +0.18 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller C | 20:54 | 2 | +2.35 | +0.08 | +1.46 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 13:10 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:41 | +0.57 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.67 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:40 | +0.12 | +0.34 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:29 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 13:02 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:55 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:05 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.25 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 14:04 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Alexander Edler D | 23:31 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Sutter C | 15:48 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 17:11 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 15:00 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 13:17 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:03 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.08 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.16 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 19:49 | −0.52 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.48 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 14:51 | −0.61 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 64:38 | −2.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.