CGY beat ANA 6–4. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 4.5 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matthew Tkachuk scored at 12:59 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Cam Talbot allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:53 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Troy Terry, Nick Ritchie | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 6:46 |  CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Noah Hanifin, Matthew Tkachuk | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:37 | ANA | Jakob Silfverberg unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 3:05 | ANA | Nicolas Deslauriers from Carter Rowney | 3–1 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 4:46 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane unassisted | 3–2 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 5:05 | CGY | Sam Bennett from Michael Stone | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 12:59 | CGY | Matthew Tkachuk from Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund | 3–4 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 14:03 | CGY | Sean Monahan unassisted | 3–5 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 19:03 | CGY | Andrew MangiapaneEN from Johnny Gaudreau | 3–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:56 | ANA | Devin Shore from Jacob Larsson, Jakob Silfverberg | 4–6 | 1% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:34 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.08 | +0.93 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.15 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Devin Shore C | 10:02 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.07 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 16:04 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.22 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Korbinian Holzer D | 15:35 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 14:16 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jacob Larsson D | 14:22 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 18:48 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:15 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 26:08 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 16:30 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 12:41 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:20 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 23:49 | −0.30 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 20:15 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 16:12 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Guhle D | 15:30 | −0.43 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 17:15 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.11 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 58:52 | −0.23 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 18:45 | 3 | 1 | +1.93 | +0.40 | +1.56 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Sean Monahan C | 19:45 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.17 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 11:41 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.11 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.58 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Kylington D | 13:37 | +0.31 | +0.33 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:00 | +0.28 | +0.37 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:56 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.42 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alexander Yelesin D | 12:25 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:21 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:55 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Stone D | 18:18 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:33 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 8:29 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 14:04 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 6:20 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 19:48 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.17 | −0.49 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 14:28 | −0.44 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:36 | −0.75 | +0.14 | −0.92 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:37 | −1.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.