NJD beat CBJ 4–3 in a shootout. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 5.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kevin Stenlund scored at 8:45 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 18% to 48%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 5.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:28 |  CBJ | Andrew Peeke from Sonny Milano, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:19 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Eric Robinson, Markus Nutivaara | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 1:20 | NJD | Joey Anderson from Kevin Rooney, Kyle Palmieri | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 3:51 | NJD | Nick Merkley from Kevin Rooney, Joey Anderson | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:55 | NJD | Kyle Palmieri from Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 8:45 | CBJ | Kevin Stenlund from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Gustav Nyquist | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:52 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.44 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.79 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 14:01 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.18 | +0.75 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 18:24 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.39 | +0.55 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.48 | |
| David Savard D | 20:38 | +0.27 | +0.42 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:02 | +0.26 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 14:19 | +0.14 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 11:20 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 15:41 | −0.02 | +0.54 | −0.54 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 16:11 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.38 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | −0.48 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 26:49 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.07 | +0.26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 21:02 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Lilja L | 9:33 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 10:20 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 18:19 | −0.37 | +0.15 | −0.57 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan Gerbe C | 15:52 | −0.59 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.48 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 19:56 | −0.68 | −0.16 | −0.55 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 19:47 | 1 | −0.91 | +0.24 | −0.67 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:54 | 1 | −1.07 | −0.07 | −0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 65:00 | +0.26 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Merkley R | 12:38 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.11 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Joey Anderson R | 13:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:52 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.32 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.02 | |
| Nikita Gusev L | 14:33 | +0.31 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.69 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 22:08 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:34 | 1 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Kevin Rooney C | 14:34 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 14:34 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 25:16 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mirco Mueller D | 22:08 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Carrick D | 15:39 | −0.33 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton White D | 15:53 | −0.34 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 18:04 | −0.46 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 16:31 | −0.58 | −0.33 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 15:44 | −0.61 | +0.19 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.48 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 17:48 | 1 | −0.99 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.48 | |
| Damon Severson D | 24:02 | −1.02 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 15:48 | −1.07 | +0.12 | −0.72 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 65:00 | +5.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.