LAK beat COL 3–1. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tyler Toffoli scored at 19:05 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Jonathan Quick saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:01 | LAK | Tyler Toffoli from Alex Iafallo, Joakim Ryan | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 19:18 | COL | Samuel Girard from Mikko Rantanen | 1–1 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 19:05 | LAK | Tyler Toffoli from Anze Kopitar | 2–1 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 19:55 | LAK | Tyler ToffoliEN from Anze Kopitar, Alex Iafallo | 3–1 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:25 | 3 | +0.86 | +0.12 | +0.77 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 19:53 | 2 | +0.60 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 18:31 | 2 | +0.27 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 20:20 | +0.16 | +0.31 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 22:29 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 20:21 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 19:53 | −0.02 | +0.26 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 10:11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 16:55 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 20:02 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 14:58 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 11:42 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 15:29 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Frk R | 14:04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Wagner L | 11:29 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 13:55 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:08 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 14:18 | −0.39 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 60:00 | +1.35 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Girard D | 21:20 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.03 | +0.37 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 9:11 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 18:57 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 19:23 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 15:52 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 13:23 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:58 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 12:47 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:25 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.19 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 22:13 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 18:22 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:35 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 18:11 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:19 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:56 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 11:04 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 19:57 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 17:38 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 42:33 | +0.08 |
| Pavel Francouz G | 16:56 | −0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.