VGK beat STL 6–5 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 6.0 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault scored on the power play at 2:30 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Malcolm Subban allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:25 | STL | Zachary Sanford from Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:59 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Mark Stone, Shea Theodore | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 6:34 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from William Karlsson, Mark Stone | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 9:41 | STL | Zachary Sanford from Robert Bortuzzo, David Perron | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 15:43 | STL | Mackenzie MacEachern from Ivan Barbashev, Vince Dunn | 3–2 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 5:13 | STL | Zachary SanfordSH from Alex Pietrangelo, Ryan O'Reilly | 4–2 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 18:59 | VGK | Jonathan MarchessaultPP from Mark Stone, Shea Theodore | 4–3 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 6:33 | VGK | Nate SchmidtPP from William Karlsson, Alex Tuch | 4–4 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 11:45 | STL | Zachary Sanford from Colton Parayko, Vince Dunn | 5–4 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 15:20 | VGK | Alex Tuch from Jon Merrill, Chandler Stephenson | 5–5 | 13% → 51% |
| OT 2:30 | VGK | Jonathan MarchessaultPP from Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone | 5–6 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Sanford L | 16:21 | 4 | +3.00 | +0.07 | +2.93 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 6:47 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.13 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 15:26 | 2 | +0.29 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 15:39 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 11:30 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 16:02 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:13 | −0.25 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:24 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 13:10 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 24:41 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:17 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:17 | −0.47 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 14:35 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:01 | 2 | −0.48 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 14:45 | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 7:53 | −0.55 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.35 | −0.01 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 20:08 | −0.60 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:45 | −0.85 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 62:30 | +0.57 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Pacioretty L | 19:10 | 2 | 1 | +1.88 | +0.47 | +1.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.06 |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 21:16 | 2 | +1.14 | +0.74 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:41 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.24 | +0.87 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 13:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.08 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Shea Theodore D | 26:27 | 2 | +0.29 | +0.38 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 13:34 | +0.24 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 23:02 | +0.21 | +0.35 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 15:20 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 8:00 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:46 | +0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 17:04 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.44 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 15:35 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 14:00 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 8:21 | −0.13 | +0.16 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 21:01 | −0.17 | +0.46 | −0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:46 | −0.18 | +0.35 | −0.54 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 20:24 | 4 | −0.31 | +0.29 | −0.66 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:52 | −0.49 | +0.17 | −0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Subban G | 62:23 | −2.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.