BUF beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CBJ 2.2, BUF 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Victor Olofsson scored at 2:44 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Matiss Kivlenieks allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:32 | CBJ | Nathan Gerbe from Vladislav Gavrikov, Riley Nash | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:31 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Zach Werenski, Liam Foudy | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 18:47 |  BUF | Jack Eichel from Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–1 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 2:10 | BUF | Victor OlofssonPP from Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 15:34 | BUF | Evan Rodrigues from Jeff Skinner, Carter Hutton | 2–3 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 18:47 | CBJ | Markus NutivaaraPP from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Foligno | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 2:44 | BUF | Victor Olofsson from Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Gerbe C | 15:05 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.07 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Markus Nutivaara D | 24:00 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.19 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 19:44 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.22 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 13:06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 10:04 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Foudy C | 18:03 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 16:02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 18:32 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 12:48 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 16:02 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:56 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 24:41 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:48 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 15:04 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:26 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Nash C | 14:30 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 18:22 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.20 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:34 | −0.53 | −0.11 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matiss Kivlenieks G | 61:59 | −1.45 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:59 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.15 | +1.62 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 11:50 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.03 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 20:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.63 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:05 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 17:19 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 18:47 | +0.10 | +0.19 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 22:26 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:02 | +0.08 | +0.19 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:00 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 11:31 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:59 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 14:48 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 12:07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:46 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 17:08 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 10:41 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:14 | −0.35 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 15:52 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 62:36 | −0.09 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.