CAR beat VGK 6–5 in a shootout. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cody Eakin scored at 16:07 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 12% to 51%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:26 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Shea Theodore, Nick Holden | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:35 | VGK | Jon Merrill from William Carrier, Nate Schmidt | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 19:31 |  CAR | Teuvo Teravainen from Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 0:59 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Reilly Smith, Paul Stastny | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 1:19 | CAR | Sebastian AhoSH from Teuvo Teravainen, Jake Gardiner | 2–3 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 2:17 | VGK | Chandler Stephenson unassisted | 2–4 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 4:16 | CAR | Erik HaulaSH from Jake Gardiner | 3–4 | 6% → 20% |
| P3 10:48 | CAR | Haydn Fleury from Brock McGinn, Joel Edmundson | 4–4 | 11% → 47% |
| P3 13:58 | CAR | Martin NecasSH from Jake Gardiner, Erik Haula | 5–4 | 50% → 85% |
| P3 16:07 | VGK | Cody Eakin from Alex Tuch, Nate Schmidt | 5–5 | 12% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Necas C | 16:00 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.11 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 12:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 |
| Haydn Fleury D | 15:56 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.06 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.03 | +0.92 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.32 |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:32 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.08 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.11 | +0.31 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 |
| Justin Williams R | 14:54 | +0.10 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.33 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 21:12 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:30 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 16:17 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 27:12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 19:33 | 3 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 13:47 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 22:30 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 12:34 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 12:16 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 16:11 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 64:51 | −1.35 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Eakin C | 13:51 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.10 | +0.89 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 20:21 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.15 | +0.64 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 16:57 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.23 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 25:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.22 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 |
| Max Pacioretty L | 19:10 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.07 | +0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 10:42 | +0.15 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 17:06 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 19:15 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 19:40 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 20:49 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 11:46 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 12:43 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 14:21 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 22:29 | 2 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:47 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:31 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.21 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 11:10 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:55 | −0.67 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 65:00 | −2.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.