MTL beat TOR 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (TOR 2.0, MTL 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Ilya Kovalchuk scored at 1:43 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 1:06 | TOR | John Tavares from Alexander Kerfoot, Zach Hyman | 1–0 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 17:27 | MTL | Marco Scandella from Xavier Ouellet, Nate Thompson | 1–1 | 9% → 51% |
| OT 1:43 | MTL | Ilya Kovalchuk from Nick Suzuki | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 22:27 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.10 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Holl D | 25:38 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 24:39 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 13:57 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:22 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:03 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederik Gauthier C | 8:15 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmytro Timashov L | 8:10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 18:12 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 10:04 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 15:06 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 9:56 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 9:47 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 18:56 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 23:52 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 25:02 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 10:30 | −0.40 | +0.05 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 24:21 | −0.44 | −0.14 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 61:39 | +0.33 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Scandella D | 15:07 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.00 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Kovalchuk L | 21:22 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.05 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:57 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 7:53 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Joel Armia R | 21:56 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:49 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Xavier Ouellet D | 10:38 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 21:50 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 9:53 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 19:54 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:33 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 28:03 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 7:54 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 7:36 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 19:21 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 19:15 | −0.22 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 11:49 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 18:19 | −0.55 | +0.04 | −0.59 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 61:43 | +0.92 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.