NYI beat LAK 5–3. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kieffer Bellows scored at 12:10 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 51% to 85%.
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:20 | Ben Hutton from Adrian Kempe, Blake Lizotte | 1–0 | 47% → 64% | |
| P1 17:20 | Alex Iafallo unassisted | 2–0 | 65% → 79% | |
| P2 1:40 | Michael Dal Colle from Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy | 2–1 | 19% → 34% | |
| P2 7:09 | Trevor Lewis from Michael Amadio, Ben Hutton | 3–1 | 67% → 83% | |
| P2 10:22 | Kieffer Bellows from Anthony Beauvillier, Derick Brassard | 3–2 | 16% → 32% | |
| P3 0:23 | Matt Martin from Devon Toews, Ryan Pulock | 3–3 | 27% → 52% | |
| P3 12:10 | Kieffer Bellows from Derick Brassard, Anders Lee | 3–4 | 51% → 85% | |
| P3 19:47 | Anders LeeEN from Brock Nelson | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hutton D | 19:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.00 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Iafallo L | 20:19 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.03 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 11:34 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dustin Brown R | 18:57 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 20:29 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 23:03 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:03 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Austin Wagner L | 12:00 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 12:24 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 14:51 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Prokhorkin L | 11:32 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 12:43 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 15:35 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:24 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 16:34 | −0.29 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 13:32 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 25:43 | −0.36 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 15:09 | −0.53 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 57:15 | −0.73 |
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieffer Bellows L | 11:16 | 2 | +1.80 | +0.17 | +1.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Dal Colle L | 10:23 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.04 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Matt Martin L | 10:56 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.09 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Komarov R | 15:07 | +0.22 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 21:38 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 15:01 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 18:14 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:41 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 23:57 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 20:08 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 14:03 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:07 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 20:34 | 1 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:47 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 12:10 | 2 | −0.25 | +0.19 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:10 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:46 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 16:02 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.10 | −0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 60:00 | −0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.