Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2020-02-06 · Barclays Center

3 – 5Final

NYI beat LAK 5–3. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kieffer Bellows scored at 12:10 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 51% to 85%.

Shots on goal
25 – 33
Expected goals
2.6 – 3.2
xG share
NYI 55%
Home-ice start
NYI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

LAK goalNYI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

LAKNYI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

NYI
Kieffer Bellows
2 G, 0 A · 11:16 TOI
On-ice +0.17 · Finishing +1.64
+1.80
NYI
Michael Dal Colle
1 G, 0 A · 10:23 TOI
Finishing +0.75 · Penalties +0.18
+0.98
LAK
1 G, 1 A · 19:08 TOI
Finishing +0.84
+0.83

Rough nights

LAK
57:15 TOI
GSAx −0.73
−0.73
NYI
Thomas Greiss
60:00 TOI
GSAx −0.54
−0.54
LAK
0 G, 0 A · 15:09 TOI
On-ice −0.19 · Finishing −0.11 · Penalties −0.18
−0.53

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalLAK–NYIWin prob.
P1 10:20 LAKBen Hutton
from Adrian Kempe, Blake Lizotte
1–047% → 64%
P1 17:20 LAKAlex Iafallo
unassisted
2–065% → 79%
P2 1:40 NYIMichael Dal Colle
from Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy
2–119% → 34%
P2 7:09 LAKTrevor Lewis
from Michael Amadio, Ben Hutton
3–167% → 83%
P2 10:22 NYIKieffer Bellows
from Anthony Beauvillier, Derick Brassard
3–216% → 32%
P3 0:23 NYIMatt Martin
from Devon Toews, Ryan Pulock
3–327% → 52%
P3 12:10 NYIKieffer Bellows
from Derick Brassard, Anders Lee
3–451% → 85%
P3 19:47 NYIAnders LeeEN
from Brock Nelson
3–597% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

LAK

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Ben Hutton D19:0811+0.83−0.00+0.84−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Alex Iafallo L20:191+0.52+0.03+0.51−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Trevor Lewis C11:341+0.41−0.04+0.46−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
Dustin Brown R18:57+0.02−0.06−0.11+0.01+0.01+0.18+0.00
Matt Roy D20:29−0.01−0.03+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Alec Martinez D23:03−0.07−0.20−0.07+0.01+0.01+0.18+0.00
Anze Kopitar C21:03−0.09−0.06−0.18+0.01+0.01+0.18−0.04
Austin Wagner L12:00−0.12−0.04−0.07−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Michael Amadio R12:241−0.13−0.15−0.02−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.03
Carl Grundstrom R14:51−0.14−0.08−0.05−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Nikolai Prokhorkin L11:32−0.18−0.12−0.05−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Kurtis MacDermid L12:43−0.21−0.16−0.01−0.01−0.03+0.00+0.00
Adrian Kempe R15:351−0.23−0.13−0.10−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Tyler Toffoli C16:24−0.25−0.23−0.02−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Jeff Carter C16:34−0.29−0.27−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.02
Blake Lizotte C13:321−0.36−0.03−0.30−0.02−0.01+0.00−0.01
Drew Doughty D25:43−0.36−0.19+0.01−0.01+0.00−0.18+0.00
Sean Walker D15:09−0.53−0.19−0.11−0.01−0.04−0.18+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Jonathan Quick G57:15−0.73

NYI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Kieffer Bellows L11:162+1.80+0.17+1.64−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Michael Dal Colle L10:231+0.98+0.04+0.75−0.01+0.01+0.18+0.01
Matt Martin L10:561+0.74+0.09+0.66−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Leo Komarov R15:07+0.22+0.22−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Nick Leddy D21:381+0.16+0.19−0.02+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Noah Dobson D15:01+0.16+0.20−0.05−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Johnny Boychuk D18:141+0.14+0.17−0.05+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Scott Mayfield D19:41+0.10+0.12−0.03+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Ryan Pulock D23:571+0.09+0.02+0.01+0.04+0.02+0.00+0.00
Devon Toews D20:081+0.01−0.01−0.02+0.01+0.03+0.00+0.00
Josh Bailey R14:03−0.06+0.08−0.14+0.02−0.02+0.00+0.00
Casey Cizikas C13:07−0.07+0.11−0.17−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Anders Lee C20:3411−0.21+0.07−0.31−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.04
Jordan Eberle R18:47−0.22−0.07−0.15+0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00
Derick Brassard C12:102−0.25+0.19−0.44+0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01
Mathew Barzal C21:10−0.31−0.00−0.08+0.01−0.01−0.18−0.05
Anthony Beauvillier R13:461−0.35+0.10−0.28+0.00+0.01−0.18+0.00
Brock Nelson C16:021−0.45+0.10−0.59−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.05
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Thomas Greiss G60:00−0.54

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.