VAN beat NYI 4–3 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Quinn Hughes scored at 0:42 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Thomas Greiss allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:09 | VAN | J.T. Miller unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:23 | NYI | Michael Dal Colle from Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 9:48 | VAN | Quinn Hughes from Chris Tanev, Brock Boeser | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 14:56 | VAN | Tim SchallerPP from Brandon Sutter, Adam Gaudette | 3–1 | 71% → 87% |
| P2 16:45 | NYI | Jordan Eberle from Anthony Beauvillier, Devon Toews | 3–2 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 19:34 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 0:42 | VAN | Quinn Hughes from Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes D | 21:06 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.23 | +1.46 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Schaller L | 11:18 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.09 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 18:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.09 | +0.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 16:10 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 8:53 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Virtanen R | 14:30 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 13:22 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 13:59 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 21:08 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:47 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:23 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 12:23 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 23:25 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:58 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Fantenberg D | 18:34 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 15:26 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:27 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:42 | −0.07 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle R | 21:01 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.07 | +0.65 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 20:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.09 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Michael Dal Colle L | 10:12 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.08 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 6:47 | +0.23 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 10:46 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 24:02 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Komarov R | 11:32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:49 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.28 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 15:29 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:56 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 18:40 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Boychuk D | 12:01 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 23:03 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 21:20 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 10:19 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:58 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:08 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 59:48 | −1.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.