NSH beat NJD 6–5 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 3.5, NJD 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Filip Forsberg scored on the power play at 9:57 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 18% to 48%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:42 | NSH | Mattias Ekholm from Jarred Tinordi, Matt Duchene | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:54 |  NJD | Pavel ZachaSH from Nico Hischier, Sami Vatanen | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 8:17 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Kyle Turris, Viktor Arvidsson | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 8:44 | NJD | Pavel ZachaPP from Nikita Gusev | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:26 | NJD | Nikita GusevPP from Pavel Zacha, Damon Severson | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 12:48 | NSH | Nick Bonino from Craig Smith, Rocco Grimaldi | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 17:24 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Kyle Palmieri, Will Butcher | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 0:33 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 6:37 | NJD | John Hayden from Kevin Rooney | 4–5 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 9:57 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Roman Josi, Kyle Turris | 5–5 | 18% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 16:30 | 2 | +1.90 | +0.13 | +1.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.67 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 19:48 | 1 | 1 | +1.49 | +0.08 | +0.74 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.79 |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:54 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.04 | +0.86 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 14:17 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.10 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 12:52 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jarred Tinordi D | 15:52 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yannick Weber D | 14:46 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 19:31 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 29:56 | 2 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dan Hamhuis D | 15:09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 23:02 | −0.13 | +0.35 | −0.54 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 8:38 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 11:54 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 11:49 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 21:24 | −0.31 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 16:44 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 20:33 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.16 | |
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 13:25 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.02 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 64:43 | −0.94 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:47 | 2 | 1 | +1.41 | −0.06 | +1.49 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Nikita Gusev L | 18:56 | 1 | 1 | +1.34 | −0.19 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.35 | +0.00 | +0.67 |
| John Hayden C | 8:49 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.10 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 16:07 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.04 | +0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 21:03 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.31 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 10:13 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 11:06 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mirco Mueller D | 15:24 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Vatanen D | 22:46 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 23:51 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 16:45 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Greene D | 20:48 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 19:40 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 13:35 | −0.35 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 18:09 | −0.40 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 12:57 | −0.53 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 24:04 | 1 | −0.63 | +0.07 | −0.48 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:34 | 1 | −0.99 | +0.15 | −0.65 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 64:49 | −2.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.