OTT beat BUF 5–2. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mike Reilly scored on the power play at 8:43 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 49% to 79%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:59 | OTT | Jean-Gabriel PageauPP from Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:42 |  BUF | Sam ReinhartPP unassisted | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 4:52 | OTT | Tyler EnnisPP from Drake Batherson, Mike Reilly | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 8:48 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Zemgus Girgensons, Brandon Montour | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 8:43 | OTT | Mike ReillyPP from Tyler Ennis, Drake Batherson | 3–2 | 49% → 79% |
| P3 17:54 | OTT | Mark BorowieckiEN unassisted | 4–2 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 19:54 | OTT | Nikita ZaitsevEN from Ron Hainsey | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ennis R | 14:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:01 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.17 | +0.60 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 15:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 17:51 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 23:18 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 19:09 | +0.27 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 20:20 | +0.05 | +0.28 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 15:05 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chlapik C | 10:00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 14:31 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 11:15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 22:16 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 15:36 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 17:01 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Sabourin R | 7:14 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:08 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.18 | −0.66 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Colin White C | 17:45 | −0.50 | +0.09 | −0.59 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:12 | −0.84 | +0.01 | −0.86 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 60:00 | +0.39 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:52 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.12 | +0.60 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 23:11 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.15 | +0.57 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 12:11 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawrence Pilut D | 16:51 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 14:29 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 22:15 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 15:06 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 12:22 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 13:48 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:33 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:10 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 12:25 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 14:36 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:58 | −0.27 | +0.11 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:04 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 20:15 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:57 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Frolik R | 13:55 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 7:13 | +0.48 |
| Linus Ullmark G | 50:28 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.