FLA beat MIN 5–4. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Noel Acciari scored at 19:54 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Alex Stalock allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:01 | FLA | Keith Yandle from Mike Hoffman, Frank Vatrano | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:43 | MIN | Jared SpurgeonPP from Eric Staal, Ryan Suter | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 7:28 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Joshua Brown, Keith Yandle | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 10:59 | MIN | Luke KuninSH from Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin | 2–2 | 31% → 52% |
| P3 2:02 | FLA | Evgenii DadonovPP from Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov | 3–2 | 49% → 74% |
| P3 4:19 | MIN | Zach ParisePP from Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter | 3–3 | 26% → 52% |
| P3 7:06 | MIN | Luke Kunin from Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno | 3–4 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 15:52 | FLA | Vincent Trocheck from Anton Stralman, Keith Yandle | 4–4 | 10% → 49% |
| P3 19:54 | FLA | Noel Acciari from Aaron Ekblad, Mark Pysyk | 5–4 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noel Acciari C | 17:41 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.02 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 18:22 | 1 | 3 | +0.88 | +0.08 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 15:53 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.15 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 17:06 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.06 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Brett Connolly R | 15:09 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 15:07 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:29 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 18:59 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 15:00 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Boyle C | 13:04 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 12:53 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Stillman D | 24:27 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 13:07 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 15:10 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 25:03 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 11:15 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 9:55 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | −1.45 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kunin C | 13:31 | 2 | +1.43 | −0.03 | +1.44 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.19 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zach Parise L | 16:56 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.10 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:24 | +0.11 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 20:00 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:33 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 9:06 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 24:48 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Greg Pateryn D | 14:59 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 11:03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 14:28 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:13 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:45 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:32 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:24 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:25 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 13:54 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 14:46 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Stalock G | 59:54 | −2.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.