ANA beat CAR 2–1 in overtime. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Steel scored at 1:36 of overtime, moving ANA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ryan Miller saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:59 |  CAR | Sebastian Aho from Joel Edmundson, Teuvo Teravainen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 18:18 | ANA | Erik Gudbranson from Ryan Getzlaf, Korbinian Holzer | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| OT 1:36 | ANA | Sam Steel from Jakob Silfverberg, Hampus Lindholm | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Steel C | 15:07 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.34 | +0.36 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 21:34 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.31 | +0.33 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 18:33 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.14 | −0.14 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 24:15 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.48 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 24:08 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 14:24 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 17:32 | +0.00 | +0.28 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Korbinian Holzer D | 12:15 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Larsson D | 13:02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 12:44 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 7:18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:42 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 19:18 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.09 | |
| Carter Rowney C | 11:24 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 23:00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:43 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:23 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 13:30 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 61:32 | +1.72 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.05 | +0.19 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:53 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 15:58 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 25:34 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 19:27 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 12:04 | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:45 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:23 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 21:51 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 13:01 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:06 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:04 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 13:05 | −0.26 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 13:14 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 16:07 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 14:22 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:23 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:46 | −0.40 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 61:33 | +1.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.