CGY beat TOR 2–1 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 3.0, TOR 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored on the power play at 8:35 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 22% to 52%. David Rittich saved 3.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:34 | CGY | Derek Ryan from Travis Hamonic, Dillon Dube | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 8:35 |  TOR | William NylanderPP from John Tavares, Tyson Barrie | 1–1 | 22% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Ryan C | 15:57 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:11 | +0.69 | +0.11 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 23:49 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 17:55 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 11:33 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 23:22 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:17 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 13:04 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 23:40 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:42 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 13:36 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 12:40 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:39 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 18:08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.32 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 11:19 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 17:30 | −0.37 | +0.09 | −0.53 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:46 | −0.43 | +0.13 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:32 | −0.56 | −0.00 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 65:00 | +3.41 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 23:55 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.19 | +0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 22:05 | +0.15 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 3:32 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dmytro Timashov L | 3:55 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 21:30 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 26:23 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:11 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 18:52 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 14:39 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 17:06 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 15:23 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 15:45 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 24:02 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 8:24 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.32 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 18:20 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 11:32 | −0.45 | −0.06 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 25:43 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 24:11 | −1.15 | +0.07 | −0.86 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.38 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 64:37 | +1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.