DAL beat COL 3–2 in overtime. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Esa Lindell scored at 1:54 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ben Bishop saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:04 | COL | Nikita Zadorov from Nathan MacKinnon | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:27 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan Graves | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 9:54 | DAL | Denis GurianovPP from Roope Hintz, John Klingberg | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P3 14:37 | DAL | Jason Dickinson from Andrew Cogliano, Blake Comeau | 2–2 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 1:54 | DAL | Esa Lindell from Joe Pavelski | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esa Lindell D | 25:28 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.08 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 10:46 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.06 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 16:30 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.11 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| John Klingberg D | 24:45 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Comeau L | 15:55 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 15:54 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Andrej Sekera D | 15:09 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 15:07 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Radulov R | 17:47 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 12:24 | −0.05 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 12:51 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 20:29 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 10:51 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:06 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 15:27 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 16:53 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 21:41 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:33 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 40:00 | +1.09 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:44 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.22 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:09 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.11 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 13:40 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.06 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:52 | +0.15 | +0.22 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 11:47 | +0.10 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 14:10 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 21:28 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 13:55 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 22:07 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 13:38 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 9:28 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 9:26 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 20:43 | −0.33 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:06 | −0.36 | −0.08 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:00 | −0.48 | −0.09 | −0.43 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:38 | −0.53 | −0.03 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:13 | 2 | −0.58 | −0.15 | −0.54 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 17:10 | −0.66 | −0.14 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 61:44 | −0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.