DET beat OTT 3–2 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 3.1, DET 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Colin White scored on the power play at 10:42 of the second, moving OTT’s win probability from 27% to 47%. Jonathan Bernier saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:55 | DET | Tyler Bertuzzi from Filip Hronek, Robby Fabbri | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:32 | DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Filip Hronek, Tyler Bertuzzi | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 5:54 | OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Colin White | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 10:42 | OTT | Colin WhitePP from Mike Reilly, Tyler Ennis | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reilly D | 22:54 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 26:47 | +0.29 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 16:05 | +0.23 | +0.17 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:53 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:21 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.49 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 21:20 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 8:07 | +0.02 | +0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 11:43 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 8:27 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 18:13 | 1 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.33 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Connor Brown R | 20:34 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 25:19 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:35 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 17:24 | −0.24 | +0.12 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Filip Chlapik C | 13:16 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 12:50 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Artem Anisimov C | 13:26 | −0.61 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.48 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 28:34 | −0.89 | −0.64 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hogberg G | 65:00 | +0.95 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:34 | 1 | +1.06 | −0.05 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.79 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 22:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.55 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 |
| Robby Fabbri C | 23:12 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 24:07 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Green D | 22:49 | +0.10 | +0.51 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christoffer Ehn C | 7:14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 16:38 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 10:31 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Biega D | 14:58 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 22:00 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 15:19 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.16 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 10:31 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 12:12 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 19:32 | −0.36 | +0.37 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brian Lashoff D | 13:33 | −0.37 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 25:03 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 13:11 | −0.55 | −0.15 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 16:48 | −0.64 | −0.16 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 65:00 | +2.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.