NYR beat NJD 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 3.3, NYR 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tony DeAngelo scored at 12:08 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:42 |  NYR | Artemi Panarin from Tony DeAngelo, Adam Fox | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:06 | NJD | Kevin RooneySH from Pavel Zacha | 1–1 | 30% → 46% |
| P1 9:47 | NYR | Tony DeAngelo from Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:16 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Tony DeAngelo, Mika Zibanejad | 1–3 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 18:10 | NJD | Blake Coleman from Damon Severson, Travis Zajac | 2–3 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 8:56 | NJD | Damon Severson from Nikita Gusev, Travis Zajac | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 12:08 | NYR | Tony DeAngelo from Marc Staal, Pavel Buchnevich | 3–4 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 15:02 | NYR | Tony DeAngeloPP from Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin | 3–5 | 80% → 90% |
| P3 12:56 | NYR | Jesper Fast from Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin | 3–6 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Coleman L | 18:30 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Damon Severson D | 23:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.05 | +0.67 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kevin Rooney C | 11:14 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.10 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Butcher D | 20:09 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:37 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.25 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Andy Greene D | 15:51 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mirco Mueller D | 17:36 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 18:33 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Nikita Gusev L | 14:30 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Street C | 3:55 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sami Vatanen D | 24:24 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 7:51 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:17 | −0.32 | −0.08 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 17:03 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.07 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 15:10 | −0.37 | +0.09 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 19:04 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 14:16 | −0.41 | +0.12 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 15:02 | −0.64 | +0.06 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Domingue G | 24:58 | −0.02 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 35:02 | −2.56 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:09 | 3 | 2 | +2.58 | +0.12 | +2.47 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artemi Panarin L | 18:39 | 1 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.50 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jesper Fast R | 15:15 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 21:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.02 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:42 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 15:36 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 15:29 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Fogarty C | 6:18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 14:41 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:12 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 5:50 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 10:03 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 9:55 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 26:14 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 23:53 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 26:03 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:52 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:47 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.