NYR beat TOR 5–4 in overtime. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tony DeAngelo scored at 0:52 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Frederik Andersen allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:41 | NYR | Brett Howden from Ryan Strome, Jacob Trouba | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:21 | TOR | William NylanderPP from John Tavares, Auston Matthews | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 7:59 | NYR | Ryan Strome from Artemi Panarin | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 4:37 | NYR | Ryan Strome from Artemi Panarin, Jesper Fast | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 7:48 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Mitch Marner | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 17:05 | NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Chris Kreider | 4–2 | 71% → 88% |
| P3 6:22 | TOR | Pierre Engvall from Tyson Barrie, Kasperi Kapanen | 4–3 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 19:07 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from William Nylander, Tyson Barrie | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 0:52 | NYR | Tony DeAngelo from Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strome C | 23:02 | 2 | 2 | +0.77 | −0.37 | +1.20 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:54 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.11 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 18:57 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.07 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 13:34 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.03 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Adam Fox D | 18:25 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 16:42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Fogarty C | 2:46 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 21:45 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Greg McKegg C | 7:44 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 14:25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Micheal Haley L | 3:25 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 17:58 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:56 | 3 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 9:09 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:17 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.47 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 24:20 | −0.59 | −0.47 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:22 | −0.62 | −0.09 | −0.57 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 19:57 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:52 | −0.47 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 23:44 | 2 | 1 | +1.96 | +0.49 | +1.28 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.15 |
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:12 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.34 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 23:39 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.45 | −0.08 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 21:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.22 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jason Spezza C | 12:32 | +0.16 | +0.38 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 24:07 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.41 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmytro Timashov L | 5:15 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 23:08 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 14:04 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Brooks C | 4:50 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 6:18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 14:50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 16:11 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:10 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 14:36 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:34 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 20:41 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:57 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:07 | −2.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.