COL beat VGK 7–3. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Nieto scored at 14:28 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 46% to 64%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 4.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:37 | COL | Pierre-Edouard BellemarePP from J.T. Compher, Ian Cole | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:23 | VGK | Ryan Reaves from Tomas Nosek, Brayden McNabb | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 14:28 | COL | Matt Nieto from J.T. Compher | 2–1 | 46% → 64% |
| P1 17:35 | COL | Nazem Kadri unassisted | 3–1 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 11:57 | VGK | Max Pacioretty from Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone | 3–2 | 15% → 32% |
| P2 14:06 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard | 4–2 | 70% → 86% |
| P2 16:58 | COL | Pierre-Edouard Bellemare from Valeri Nichushkin | 5–2 | 88% → 97% |
| P3 2:06 | VGK | William Carrier from Nate Schmidt, Reilly Smith | 5–3 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 3:57 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon | 6–3 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 16:53 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin unassisted | 7–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:05 | 2 | +1.70 | +0.09 | +1.55 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:24 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.03 | +0.46 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.02 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 11:30 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.11 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:04 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.17 | +0.76 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 13:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 21:59 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.17 | +0.46 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ian Cole D | 15:16 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lindholm D | 12:02 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 12:12 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 11:25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 13:32 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:20 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 23:06 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 19:56 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 24:18 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:55 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:34 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 14:57 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pavel Francouz G | 60:00 | −0.08 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Carrier L | 12:06 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.04 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:30 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.04 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Max Pacioretty L | 11:20 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.05 | +0.46 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 24:47 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 20:45 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 13:59 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 14:46 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 20:38 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 19:58 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Valentin Zykov L | 11:38 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 23:31 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 12:19 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 18:48 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 15:20 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 15:34 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.37 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 15:36 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 17:39 | −0.34 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:14 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | −3.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.