LAK beat BOS 4–3 in overtime. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 1.4 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anze Kopitar scored at 3:23 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Tuukka Rask allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:17 | LAK | Blake LizottePP from Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 19:01 | BOS | Danton HeinenPP from Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:45 | LAK | Adrian KempeSH unassisted | 2–1 | 46% → 66% |
| P2 10:44 | BOS | Patrice Bergeron from Torey Krug | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 1:24 | BOS | Brandon Carlo from Jake DeBrusk, Danton Heinen | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 17:59 | LAK | Matt RoyPP from Nikolai Prokhorkin | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 3:23 | LAK | Anze Kopitar from Drew Doughty | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Kempe R | 13:48 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.04 | +0.84 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matt Roy D | 23:29 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 14:04 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.32 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 24:12 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.30 | +0.43 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 20:24 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 11:16 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 27:21 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Wagner L | 10:38 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Prokhorkin L | 13:39 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:21 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 15:26 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Joakim Ryan D | 23:15 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 11:13 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 22:43 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 16:24 | −0.34 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 10:34 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 10:50 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 20:50 | −0.45 | −0.25 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 63:18 | +0.48 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:39 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.14 | +0.47 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 20:39 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.37 | −0.07 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 20:34 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.14 | +0.36 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 16:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.09 | +0.34 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:18 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| David Krejci C | 18:56 | +0.21 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 26:17 | +0.18 | +0.24 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 21:55 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 10:35 | +0.14 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 15:02 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 21:29 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 14:11 | +0.06 | +0.25 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 16:45 | +0.06 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 20:50 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 9:27 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Moore D | 15:19 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 8:15 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:11 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 63:15 | −2.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.