FLA beat OTT 6–1. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Noel Acciari scored at 9:42 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Anders Nilsson allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:42 |  FLA | Noel Acciari from Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:18 | FLA | Noel Acciari from Jonathan Huberdeau | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 2:05 | OTT | Artem Anisimov from Tyler Ennis, Logan Brown | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 5:41 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 10:33 | FLA | Noel Acciari from MacKenzie Weegar, Aaron Ekblad | 1–4 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 15:06 | FLA | Mike Matheson from Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–5 | 97% → 100% |
| P2 19:28 | FLA | Dominic Toninato from Aaron Ekblad | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Anisimov C | 14:46 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:37 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| J.C. Beaudin C | 11:53 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andreas Englund D | 11:25 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 13:16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 13:20 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:20 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:35 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 20:43 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 13:42 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 14:34 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 13:18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 12:44 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 24:22 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 22:57 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 17:39 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 16:24 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:30 | −0.47 | +0.07 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Nilsson G | 60:00 | −3.40 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noel Acciari C | 14:20 | 3 | +2.52 | +0.08 | +2.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 18:31 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.11 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic Toninato C | 10:43 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:13 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.01 | +0.42 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:22 | +0.17 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 19:51 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 15:01 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 8:31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 10:37 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:07 | 4 | −0.04 | +0.15 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Malgin C | 13:53 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 18:00 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 16:48 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 17:32 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:50 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 22:10 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 17:13 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 18:42 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | +1.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.