BUF beat EDM 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 2.4, EDM 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Colin Miller scored at 1:13 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:08 | BUF | Kyle Okposo from Marco Scandella | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:43 | BUF | Johan Larsson from Jimmy Vesey, Rasmus Asplund | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 8:25 | EDM | Riley Sheahan from Joakim Nygard, Darnell Nurse | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 15:56 | EDM | Joakim NygardPP from Darnell Nurse, Gaetan Haas | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| OT 1:13 | BUF | Colin Miller from Marcus Johansson, Jack Eichel | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Okposo R | 13:40 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.00 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Colin Miller D | 17:59 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 14:58 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.08 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 17:00 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 15:46 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 20:14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:41 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 17:55 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:18 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:11 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 8:09 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 25:25 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 22:01 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.23 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:53 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:10 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 9:21 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:06 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 21:26 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 61:13 | +0.97 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joakim Nygard L | 8:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.11 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Riley Sheahan C | 13:23 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.16 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Gaetan Haas C | 7:58 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:07 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 21:04 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 14:30 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 21:20 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 13:07 | −0.04 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:54 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Persson D | 14:13 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 11:08 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 17:22 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 18:44 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 13:56 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 11:24 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 19:46 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:59 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.27 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 25:23 | −0.75 | −0.10 | −0.51 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 61:07 | −0.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.