WPG beat SJS 5–1. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Gustafsson scored at 18:09 of the first, moving WPG’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:28 | SJS | Melker Karlsson from Joe Thornton, Mario Ferraro | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:15 | WPG | Patrik LainePP from Blake Wheeler, Neal Pionk | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:09 | WPG | David Gustafsson from Anthony Bitetto, Luca Sbisa | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 3:29 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Kyle Connor, Patrik Laine | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 14:01 | WPG | Jack Roslovic from Blake Wheeler | 4–1 | 86% → 96% |
| P3 14:47 | WPG | Kyle ConnorEN from Patrik Laine | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Gustafsson C | 8:33 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.01 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 17:44 | 1 | 2 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.72 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Roslovic C | 11:51 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.02 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 17:57 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.01 | +0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 13:05 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 19:21 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:46 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Sbisa D | 18:59 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 11:12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joona Luoto L | 8:53 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:39 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tucker Poolman D | 18:11 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Shaw R | 9:46 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Bitetto D | 17:56 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 19:58 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 15:36 | 2 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 19:52 | 1 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Josh Morrissey D | 20:35 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +2.31 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melker Karlsson C | 12:27 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 14:12 | +0.20 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 15:20 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Sorensen L | 12:23 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:35 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 14:23 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Antti Suomela C | 12:27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 15:47 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:49 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:07 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Heed D | 14:22 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 13:34 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 14:36 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 25:34 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:15 | −0.31 | +0.08 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 24:02 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.51 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 16:04 | −0.54 | −0.08 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 20:14 | −0.69 | +0.03 | −0.71 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 59:45 | −1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.