COL beat EDM 4–1. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Nieto scored at 3:05 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Mikko Koskinen saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:17 | EDM | Jujhar Khaira from Darnell Nurse | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 10:50 |  COL | Nazem Kadri from Joonas Donskoi, Calle Rosen | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 3:05 | COL | Matt Nieto from Nathan MacKinnon, Joonas Donskoi | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:07 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Ian Cole, Ryan Graves | 1–3 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 5:37 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Valeri Nichushkin | 1–4 | 94% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jujhar Khaira L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.06 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 4:43 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 14:49 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 11:36 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gaetan Haas C | 9:21 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 13:08 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 6:13 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 15:59 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 13:13 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Patrick Russell R | 9:28 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 25:10 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 26:06 | −0.24 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 17:35 | −0.27 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 27:59 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| James Neal L | 14:01 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:50 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 19:44 | −0.50 | −0.13 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 17:59 | −0.67 | −0.17 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mikko Koskinen G | 60:00 | +1.03 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:46 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.05 | +0.56 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 8:31 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 14:32 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.38 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 15:05 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.34 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Tynan C | 7:54 | +0.22 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:31 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:37 | +0.18 | +0.24 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:21 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 15:18 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.26 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Samuel Girard D | 21:37 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 9:49 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 16:57 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 15:43 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 21:22 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:40 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 17:05 | −0.46 | +0.09 | −0.58 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 16:34 | 1 | −0.50 | +0.14 | −0.65 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | +0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.