ARI beat ANA 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (ANA 2.6, ARI 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Goligoski scored short-handed at 10:38 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 18% to 52%. John Gibson allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:02 | ARI | Christian Dvorak from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Clayton Keller | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:22 | ANA | Brendan GuhleSH from Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:22 | ARI | Christian Dvorak from Vinnie Hinostroza, Jason Demers | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 11:42 | ANA | Sam Steel from Nick Ritchie, Cam Fowler | 2–2 | 26% → 46% |
| P3 10:00 | ANA | Troy Terry from Erik Gudbranson, Cam Fowler | 3–2 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 10:38 | ARI | Alex GoligoskiSH from Christian Fischer | 3–3 | 18% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Guhle D | 11:32 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.06 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Kase R | 16:06 | +0.58 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.69 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 15:33 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.13 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Sam Steel C | 16:41 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.06 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.38 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 16:27 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 13:28 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:39 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Korbinian Holzer D | 17:11 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 26:32 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 14:18 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 23:38 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 14:10 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 15:45 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 13:29 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 16:39 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 25:51 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 18:12 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 19:23 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 65:00 | −1.32 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:27 | 2 | +2.73 | +0.02 | +1.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +1.02 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 26:34 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.12 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 12:24 | +0.74 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 15:17 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 14:40 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:35 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 15:05 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 13:54 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 21:02 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 26:29 | −0.17 | +0.21 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 15:15 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 11:41 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 16:56 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 12:34 | −0.26 | +0.16 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 10:24 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:38 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:39 | −0.52 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.32 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 20:11 | −0.76 | −0.18 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 65:00 | −0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.