SJS beat VGK 2–1 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Logan Couture scored at 3:20 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Aaron Dell saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:26 | SJS | Timo Meier from Dylan Gambrell, Antti Suomela | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P3 9:42 | VGK | Brayden McNabb from William Carrier | 1–1 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 3:20 | SJS | Logan Couture from Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 21:24 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.19 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 14:28 | +0.30 | +0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 20:33 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.31 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Antti Suomela C | 6:03 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 11:50 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Melker Karlsson C | 11:38 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 24:25 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 14:57 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 12:43 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 15:02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 18:33 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 17:39 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:28 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Heed D | 10:36 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 20:57 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:11 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 20:20 | −0.72 | −0.21 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 63:02 | +2.23 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:36 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.04 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 21:06 | +0.19 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:42 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:51 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 14:36 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 13:42 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 19:09 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 10:21 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 10:38 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 15:23 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:51 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 15:47 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 21:26 | −0.29 | +0.12 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 13:59 | −0.35 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| William Carrier L | 8:51 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.09 | −0.49 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 22:44 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 18:56 | −0.49 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:22 | −0.52 | +0.00 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 63:20 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.