NYI beat PIT 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 2.5, NYI 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brock Nelson scored at 4:16 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Matt Murray allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:04 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Jake Guentzel, John Marino | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:12 | NYI | Scott Mayfield from Mathew Barzal | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 1:09 | PIT | Bryan Rust unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 11:38 | NYI | Anthony BeauvillierPP from Derick Brassard, Ryan Pulock | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 15:08 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Anthony Beauvillier, Mathew Barzal | 2–3 | 52% → 89% |
| P3 19:30 | PIT | Patric HornqvistPP from Evgeni Malkin, Brian Dumoulin | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 4:16 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Mathew Barzal | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patric Hornqvist R | 15:27 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.08 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 21:44 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.16 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.16 | +0.36 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 25:58 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 22:56 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 10:56 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kahun C | 14:49 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Trotman D | 19:00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:37 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:34 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 9:32 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 10:22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 17:38 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:35 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 15:04 | −0.29 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 14:12 | −0.30 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:08 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 10:10 | −0.43 | −0.11 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 63:04 | −1.26 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:09 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.07 | +0.91 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 21:15 | 2 | +0.89 | −0.05 | +1.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.07 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 21:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.06 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Devon Toews D | 15:59 | +0.30 | +0.20 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:46 | 3 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Martin L | 7:15 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:29 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 9:45 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 24:25 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Boychuk D | 15:51 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 16:01 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Otto Koivula L | 7:13 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 18:44 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 17:48 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 22:21 | −0.28 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Dal Colle L | 12:01 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:54 | −0.57 | +0.00 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 64:16 | −0.77 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.