FLA beat ANA 5–4 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Aaron Ekblad scored at 0:22 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. John Gibson allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:15 | ANA | Max Jones from Jakob Silfverberg, Jacob Larsson | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:17 | ANA | Nick Ritchie from Ondrej Kase, Erik Gudbranson | 2–0 | 67% → 83% |
| P2 15:50 | ANA | Rickard RakellPP from Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf | 3–0 | 88% → 97% |
| P2 18:39 | ANA | Ondrej Kase unassisted | 4–0 | 97% → 99% |
| P2 18:53 | FLA | Brett Connolly from Frank Vatrano | 4–1 | 1% → 3% |
| P2 19:20 | FLA | Brett Connolly from Vincent Trocheck, Anton Stralman | 4–2 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 11:55 | FLA | Aaron Ekblad from Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov | 4–3 | 3% → 18% |
| P3 15:37 | FLA | Dominic Toninato from Aaron Ekblad, Mike Hoffman | 4–4 | 12% → 51% |
| OT 0:22 | FLA | Aaron Ekblad from Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:40 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.09 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 13:42 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.05 | +0.72 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 13:50 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.11 | +0.54 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Kase R | 14:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.05 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 18:36 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 20:49 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Larsson D | 21:01 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Guhle D | 18:13 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 20:15 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 15:28 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.05 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 15:37 | −0.07 | +0.19 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:10 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 12:28 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 12:56 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 17:46 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 13:07 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 12:43 | −0.42 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 60:22 | −2.73 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:30 | 2 | 1 | +2.08 | +0.24 | +1.64 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Brett Connolly R | 16:15 | 2 | +1.62 | −0.11 | +1.75 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic Toninato C | 9:43 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.06 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 21:46 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 22:20 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 7:46 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 13:37 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 16:07 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 6:03 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 21:34 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:40 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.13 | −0.40 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Denis Malgin C | 13:51 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:44 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 21:47 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 12:09 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 16:41 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 22:09 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:22 | −1.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.