SJS beat DET 4–3 in a shootout. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andreas Athanasiou scored at 15:46 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 10% to 49%. Jimmy Howard allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:59 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Logan Couture, Radim Simek | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:11 | SJS | Marc-Edouard Vlasic from Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 1:24 | DET | Andreas Athanasiou from Robby Fabbri, Joe Hicketts | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 11:34 | DET | Taro Hirose from Brendan Perlini, Madison Bowey | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 12:32 | SJS | Erik KarlssonPP from Kevin Labanc, Logan Couture | 2–3 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 15:46 | DET | Andreas Athanasiou from Valtteri Filppula, Robby Fabbri | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 18:31 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.20 | +1.49 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.29 | |
| Taro Hirose L | 9:59 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.09 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Valtteri Filppula C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Dennis Cholowski D | 24:19 | +0.11 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Biega D | 13:38 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 12:04 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 11:22 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:41 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.33 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 16:41 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 19:51 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 22:58 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 23:51 | −0.32 | +0.13 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joe Hicketts D | 21:43 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 20:55 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 12:08 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 17:04 | 2 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 13:31 | −0.57 | −0.13 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 12:10 | −0.66 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 65:00 | −1.76 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Labanc R | 16:34 | 1 | 2 | +1.12 | +0.21 | +0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.67 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 21:21 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.12 | +0.91 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:14 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.10 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 16:31 | +0.34 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:19 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 11:08 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Lukas Radil C | 8:53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:55 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 15:37 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 13:50 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 18:19 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 19:23 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 15:17 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 16:01 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:38 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 15:34 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 18:36 | 3 | −0.25 | +0.18 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.11 | |
| Brent Burns D | 23:06 | −0.29 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 64:51 | +0.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.