BUF beat OTT 4–2. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jack Eichel scored at 12:13 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 85%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:28 |  BUF | Jack Eichel from Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:04 | OTT | Anthony DuclairPP from Logan Brown, Thomas Chabot | 1–1 | 32% → 47% |
| P2 9:39 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Victor Olofsson, Sam Reinhart | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 2:01 | OTT | Tyler Ennis from Ron Hainsey, Vladislav Namestnikov | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 12:13 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Jeff Skinner | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 19:46 | BUF | Jack EichelEN unassisted | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ennis R | 13:05 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.05 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 18:29 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.10 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:59 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 15:07 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 19:24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 11:27 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Filip Chlapik C | 8:45 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 14:18 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:31 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 21:03 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 16:25 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 20:29 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 12:10 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 17:37 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Connor Brown R | 17:21 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 16:44 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 19:32 | −0.55 | −0.11 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 58:33 | −0.78 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 19:57 | 4 | +2.74 | −0.00 | +2.56 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.04 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:48 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 18:33 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 20:45 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 18:37 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 12:13 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 10:18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 11:56 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 22:16 | −0.04 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:09 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:47 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 4:09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 24:06 | −0.16 | +0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 17:44 | 2 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:41 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 18:01 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:18 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 20:47 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.