MIN beat ARI 3–2. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Greenway scored at 12:11 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 51% to 85%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:39 | MIN | Kevin Fiala from Zach Parise | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:04 | ARI | Conor Garland from Nick Schmaltz | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 5:39 | MIN | Zach ParisePP from Mikko Koivu, Jason Zucker | 1–2 | 53% → 80% |
| P3 7:32 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Phil Kessel, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–2 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 12:11 | MIN | Jordan Greenway from Jonas Brodin, Joel Eriksson Ek | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Garland R | 16:30 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.03 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:08 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.29 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:16 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ness D | 15:26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:45 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 13:09 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 13:20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 19:34 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 9:58 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 10:48 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 17:16 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 17:10 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:14 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 15:00 | −0.37 | −0.22 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 18:30 | −0.41 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:39 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 17:34 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.43 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 21:01 | −0.80 | −0.35 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 57:32 | −0.30 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Parise L | 17:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.36 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jordan Greenway L | 15:24 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.13 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 15:12 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.25 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Koivu C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.38 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:50 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.33 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 24:17 | +0.27 | +0.30 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 8:20 | +0.24 | +0.15 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 8:55 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:39 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 15:51 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.10 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 9:45 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 25:13 | +0.01 | +0.16 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 26:26 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:53 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brad Hunt D | 10:29 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 15:47 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:48 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 10:04 | −0.73 | +0.14 | −0.87 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 60:00 | −0.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.