CAR beat BUF 5–4 in overtime. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dougie Hamilton scored at 2:28 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Carter Hutton allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:26 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Conor Sheary, Evan Rodrigues | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:07 |  CAR | Jordan Staal from Brett Pesce, Joel Edmundson | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 17:17 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 0:49 | CAR | Teuvo Teravainen from Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | 3–1 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 15:04 | BUF | Curtis Lazar unassisted | 3–2 | 13% → 30% |
| P3 13:35 | BUF | Henri Jokiharju unassisted | 3–3 | 16% → 51% |
| P3 16:06 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Teuvo Teravainen, Dougie Hamilton | 4–3 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 19:19 | BUF | Johan LarssonPP from Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson | 4–4 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 2:28 | CAR | Dougie Hamilton from Martin Necas | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 21:52 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.05 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 20:18 | 1 | 2 | +0.63 | −0.05 | +0.83 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Sebastian Aho C | 22:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.09 | +0.59 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.08 |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 25:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.24 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jordan Staal C | 17:43 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 13:44 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 21:25 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 12:47 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Gardiner D | 12:48 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 11:04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 24:20 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock McGinn L | 11:01 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:24 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 9:38 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 11:50 | −0.27 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 12:42 | −0.34 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:20 | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 13:03 | −0.43 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 62:28 | −0.91 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henri Jokiharju D | 15:28 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.08 | +0.84 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 13:59 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.33 | +0.71 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.39 | +0.33 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:47 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.05 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 22:42 | +0.28 | +0.32 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:16 | +0.21 | +0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 18:48 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 13:33 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 15:18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 20:09 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.35 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 25:05 | −0.05 | +0.34 | −0.60 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:35 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 13:12 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 24:25 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 9:24 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:08 | −0.22 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 15:24 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 13:10 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 61:24 | −2.57 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.