DAL beat CGY 3–1. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 2.9, CGY 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Joe Pavelski scored at 3:22 of the second, moving DAL’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Ben Bishop saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:22 | DAL | Joe Pavelski from Denis Gurianov, Miro Heiskanen | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P3 6:38 | DAL | Justin Dowling unassisted | 2–0 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 9:57 |  CGY | Sean MonahanPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau | 2–1 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 18:27 | DAL | Joe PavelskiEN from Radek Faksa | 3–1 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Dowling C | 11:18 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.09 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:02 | 2 | +0.34 | +0.17 | +0.33 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Taylor Fedun D | 13:52 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Caamano R | 8:58 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 15:53 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 13:02 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 26:09 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:18 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 12:20 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.23 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 18:00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 18:48 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 16:59 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 18:38 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Blake Comeau L | 15:35 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 17:14 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 17:20 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 60:00 | +1.66 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan C | 18:43 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.14 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:45 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:33 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 10:26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:34 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:30 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 9:21 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 17:05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 12:50 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 9:43 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 26:42 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 12:23 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:24 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:12 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 18:14 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 12:00 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:59 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.19 | −0.68 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 11:35 | −0.50 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 58:46 | +0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.