OTT beat NJD 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.4, NJD 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored at 17:59 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 50% to 93%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:19 | NJD | Wayne Simmonds from Miles Wood, Nico Hischier | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 14:54 | OTT | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Connor Brown | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 17:52 | NJD | Will Butcher from Nikita Gusev, Blake Coleman | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 13:30 | OTT | Mark Borowiecki from Nikita Zaitsev, Filip Chlapik | 2–2 | 14% → 49% |
| P3 17:59 | OTT | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Nick Paul, Connor Brown | 3–2 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 19:34 | OTT | Jean-Gabriel PageauEN unassisted | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 19:27 | 3 | +1.66 | +0.28 | +1.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 19:27 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.03 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 22:22 | +0.43 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 21:22 | +0.33 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 15:54 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 21:17 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.27 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Filip Chlapik C | 6:48 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 18:58 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 12:30 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 11:06 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 15:55 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 19:20 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.29 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Tyler Ennis R | 12:37 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 14:40 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 24:44 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 16:53 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 11:52 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.C. Beaudin C | 8:25 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 60:00 | +0.21 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Butcher D | 24:55 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.25 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 16:38 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.13 | +0.49 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 19:08 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 12:43 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Matt Tennyson D | 14:20 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mirco Mueller D | 13:57 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 10:47 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 22:19 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:35 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 13:05 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:23 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Gusev L | 12:19 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 19:53 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:49 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 18:13 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 22:33 | −0.35 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 16:27 | −0.38 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 18:05 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:51 | −0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.