DET beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.7, ANA 3.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Dennis Cholowski scored at 2:04 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:20 | ANA | Jakob Silfverberg from Adam Henrique | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 0:49 | ANA | Joshua Mahura from Adam Henrique, Ondrej Kase | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 11:33 | DET | Filip Hronek from Madison Bowey, Tyler Bertuzzi | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 13:48 | ANA | Cam Fowler from Ryan Getzlaf, Ondrej Kase | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 17:21 | DET | Andreas Athanasiou from Valtteri Filppula, Mike Green | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 19:23 | DET | Dylan LarkinPP from Tyler Bertuzzi, Anthony Mantha | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 2:04 | DET | Dennis Cholowski from Robby Fabbri | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.37 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.53 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:20 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.18 | +0.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Cholowski D | 27:14 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.19 | +0.45 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 24:29 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.07 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:39 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Valtteri Filppula C | 17:31 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.29 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 21:20 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 21:14 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Erne L | 11:11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Green D | 23:51 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.10 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Biega D | 11:22 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 14:51 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 14:17 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 6:57 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christoffer Ehn C | 10:41 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 16:55 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darren Helm C | 12:13 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 13:29 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 60:29 | −0.24 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Mahura D | 17:48 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.01 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 17:06 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.21 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 20:00 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.02 | +0.63 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 15:55 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 19:05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 9:04 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 14:47 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Larsson D | 21:07 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Guhle D | 20:43 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 12:19 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 15:17 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 11:31 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 16:35 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Korbinian Holzer D | 20:23 | −0.31 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 17:48 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:32 | 2 | −0.32 | +0.14 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 16:47 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 15:53 | −0.45 | −0.12 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 62:04 | −0.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.