SJS beat NSH 2–1 in a shootout. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tomas Hertl scored at 5:22 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 24% to 52%. Martin Jones saved 4.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:44 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Dante Fabbro | 1–0 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 5:22 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Timo Meier, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1–1 | 24% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Fabbro D | 12:54 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yannick Weber D | 7:29 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 12:27 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:28 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 15:05 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 11:28 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 11:37 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 19:13 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.32 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 27:59 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 15:09 | −0.31 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 20:51 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 29:14 | −0.36 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 22:46 | −0.41 | +0.29 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.48 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 12:44 | −0.54 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.48 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 20:31 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.48 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 15:55 | −0.67 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.48 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 26:04 | −0.68 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 11:39 | −0.85 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 64:58 | +3.59 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Meier R | 20:47 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.36 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.02 | |
| Marcus Sorensen L | 15:12 | +0.22 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 18:50 | +0.22 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 13:45 | +0.21 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 13:44 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:19 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.41 | +0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.48 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 5:19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:16 | −0.04 | +0.22 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 9:55 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 15:37 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 8:54 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Tim Heed D | 13:25 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 22:09 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 17:01 | −0.25 | +0.33 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 25:33 | −0.38 | +0.38 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.48 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:38 | −0.76 | −0.11 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.48 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 21:07 | −0.77 | −0.20 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.38 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 22:19 | −1.05 | +0.02 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.48 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 64:17 | +4.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.