Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2019-11-07 · Wells Fargo Center

2 – 3Final/OT

PHI beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sean Couturier scored at 0:55 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Carey Price saved 1.4 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
24 – 43
Expected goals
2.0 – 4.0
xG share
PHI 67%
Home-ice start
PHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

MTL goalPHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

MTLPHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

MTL
Carey Price
60:55 TOI
GSAx +1.41
+1.41
PHI
Philippe Myers
1 G, 0 A · 16:14 TOI
On-ice +0.14 · Finishing +0.80 · Penalties +0.18
+1.10
MTL
1 G, 0 A · 25:03 TOI
On-ice +0.15 · Finishing +0.69
+0.83

Rough nights

MTL
0 G, 0 A · 15:26 TOI
Finishing −0.52 · Penalties −0.35
−0.84
MTL
Tomas Tatar
0 G, 0 A · 10:17 TOI
On-ice −0.18 · Penalties −0.35
−0.53
PHI
Kevin Hayes
0 G, 0 A · 14:48 TOI
On-ice +0.09 · Finishing −0.61
−0.50

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalMTL–PHIWin prob.
P1 13:51 PHIPhilippe Myers
unassisted
0–153% → 71%
P2 0:49 PHIJames van Riemsdyk
from Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux
0–272% → 86%
P2 13:44 MTLBen Chiarot
from Nick Cousins, Phillip Danault
1–210% → 25%
P3 4:05 MTLShea Weber
from Jonathan Drouin
2–221% → 48%
OT 0:55 PHISean Couturier
from Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov
2–352% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

MTL

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Ben Chiarot D25:031+0.83+0.15+0.69−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
Shea Weber D23:441+0.68−0.20+0.83−0.01+0.06+0.00+0.00
Nick Cousins C12:561+0.03+0.10−0.07−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Ryan Poehling C9:38−0.02+0.00−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.02
Cale Fleury D13:41−0.04−0.05+0.01+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Nate Thompson C16:54−0.05−0.04−0.00−0.03+0.01+0.00+0.01
Jeff Petry D28:46−0.06−0.02+0.01−0.01−0.03+0.00+0.00
Phillip Danault C20:211−0.06−0.02−0.07−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.05
Brendan Gallagher R14:08−0.12−0.00−0.13+0.02−0.01+0.00+0.01
Paul Byron L17:45−0.16−0.14−0.00−0.02−0.00+0.00+0.00
Nick Suzuki C9:19−0.16−0.02−0.14+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Jonathan Drouin L13:241−0.16−0.15−0.00+0.00−0.01+0.00−0.01
Victor Mete D16:47−0.19−0.21+0.01−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Max Domi C15:43−0.20−0.16−0.04+0.04+0.00+0.00−0.04
Joel Armia R13:59−0.22−0.11−0.11−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Mike Reilly D12:54−0.22+0.07−0.29−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Tomas Tatar L10:17−0.53−0.18−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.35+0.00
Artturi Lehkonen L15:26−0.84−0.00−0.52−0.00+0.03−0.35+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Carey Price G60:55+1.41

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Philippe Myers D16:141+1.10+0.14+0.80−0.00−0.01+0.18+0.00
James van Riemsdyk L18:141+0.62+0.09+0.53−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Sean Couturier C19:011+0.41+0.01+0.38+0.03+0.00+0.00+0.00
Claude Giroux R20:131+0.28+0.15−0.05+0.03−0.00+0.18−0.03
Travis Sanheim D17:20+0.11+0.16−0.05+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Joel Farabee L19:05+0.03+0.09−0.05−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Shayne Gostisbehere D21:53−0.00+0.06−0.24+0.03−0.02+0.18+0.00
Michael Raffl L9:27−0.07−0.05−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Mikhail Vorobyev C7:34−0.09−0.06−0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00−0.01
Ivan Provorov D23:461−0.15+0.02−0.16−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Matt Niskanen D22:22−0.15−0.08−0.10+0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
Tyler Pitlick C7:48−0.20−0.06−0.13−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Justin Braun D13:31−0.20−0.04−0.16−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Travis Konecny R18:411−0.25+0.05−0.31−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.03
Jakub Voracek R20:101−0.28+0.06−0.61+0.10−0.01+0.18+0.00
Oskar Lindblom L18:55−0.29−0.01−0.27−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Carsen Twarynski L13:48−0.35+0.11−0.45−0.02−0.00+0.00+0.00
Kevin Hayes R14:48−0.50+0.09−0.61+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Carter Hart G60:50−0.21

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.