PIT beat NYI 4–3 in overtime. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Bryan Rust scored at 3:25 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Matt Murray allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:19 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Michael Dal Colle, Ryan Pulock | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 6:28 | NYI | Cal ClutterbuckSH from Casey Cizikas, Adam Pelech | 0–2 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 9:26 | NYI | Adam Pelech from Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P3 1:38 |  PIT | Jared McCann from John Marino, Brian Dumoulin | 1–3 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 6:16 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Jared McCann, Evgeni Malkin | 2–3 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 8:48 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Juuso Riikola, Jared McCann | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 3:25 | PIT | Bryan Rust unassisted | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Rust R | 16:29 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.19 | +1.51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 15:04 | 1 | 2 | +0.87 | +0.20 | +0.63 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.16 | +0.50 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 14:39 | +0.27 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 15:43 | +0.13 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:42 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Riikola D | 17:37 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.23 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 11:34 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 25:20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:19 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 20:15 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 12:36 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dominik Kahun C | 13:07 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:53 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 14:44 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 16:47 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:24 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.36 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:15 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 62:57 | −1.15 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 16:32 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 25:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.06 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 17:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.03 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Michael Dal Colle L | 16:04 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 16:59 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 15:05 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 7:20 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 6:46 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 20:34 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 26:02 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Boychuk D | 17:25 | −0.16 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:23 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 21:02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 17:31 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:53 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:41 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Bardreau C | 7:19 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:32 | −0.42 | −0.13 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 63:25 | −0.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.