MTL beat BOS 5–4. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ben Chiarot scored at 9:06 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Tuukka Rask allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:13 | MTL | Victor Mete from Joel Armia, Jeff Petry | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 14:55 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 16:45 | MTL | Tomas Tatar from Brendan Gallagher, Ben Chiarot | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:16 | MTL | Paul Byron unassisted | 1–3 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 7:17 | BOS | Connor Clifton from Zach Senyshyn | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P2 18:13 | BOS | Anders Bjork from Charlie McAvoy, Zach Senyshyn | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 18:55 | MTL | Victor Mete from Artturi Lehkonen, Jeff Petry | 3–4 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 3:03 | BOS | Sean Kuraly from Chris Wagner | 4–4 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 9:06 | MTL | Ben Chiarot from Shea Weber, Tomas Tatar | 4–5 | 52% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Clifton D | 17:47 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.06 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:49 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 12:07 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.20 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 21:22 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.48 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 19:56 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 13:42 | +0.17 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Zach Senyshyn R | 10:49 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 18:52 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 20:14 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 13:59 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 17:54 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 8:15 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 14:45 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:07 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:41 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 21:52 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Krejci C | 17:37 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:11 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 59:01 | −2.48 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Mete D | 20:53 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.04 | +1.62 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 23:13 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.16 | +0.88 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Paul Byron L | 12:42 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.09 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.06 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Phillip Danault C | 19:28 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 16:06 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 13:36 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Shea Weber D | 23:57 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 24:41 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 14:43 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 9:20 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cale Fleury D | 12:45 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:02 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 17:16 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 11:34 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 13:12 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:59 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:38 | 1 | −0.55 | +0.04 | −0.60 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 59:56 | −1.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.