BOS beat PIT 6–4. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brad Marchand scored at 18:03 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Matt Murray allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:24 | BOS | Jake DeBrusk unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:05 | BOS | Brad Marchand from David Pastrnak, Zdeno Chara | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 4:22 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Brad Marchand, Brandon Carlo | 0–3 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 5:35 | PIT | Dominik Kahun from Jared McCann, Justin Schultz | 1–3 | 5% → 13% |
| P2 9:56 | PIT | Nick Bjugstad from Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin | 2–3 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 15:59 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Evgeni Malkin, Alex Galchenyuk | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 19:57 | PIT | John Marino unassisted | 4–3 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 8:14 | BOS | Torey Krug from Brad Marchand, David Krejci | 4–4 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 18:03 | BOS | Brad Marchand unassisted | 4–5 | 50% → 94% |
| P3 19:46 | BOS | Patrice BergeronEN from David Krejci, Brad Marchand | 4–6 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann L | 11:25 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Dominik Kahun C | 10:16 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.03 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:38 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.15 | +0.30 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| John Marino D | 21:35 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.15 | +0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 18:00 | +0.26 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 13:42 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.07 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 15:11 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 24:18 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 19:14 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 19:23 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 17:41 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 12:54 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dominik Simon C | 16:59 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 13:12 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:14 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:45 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:44 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:50 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 34:37 | −1.02 |
| Matt Murray G | 24:22 | −1.96 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 24:21 | 2 | 3 | +1.56 | +0.15 | +0.86 | +0.36 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Zdeno Chara D | 22:31 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:22 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.14 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 20:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.24 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:52 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 21:47 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.10 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Torey Krug D | 19:08 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.28 | +0.39 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 21:02 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 14:56 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cameron Hughes C | 9:53 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 8:51 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 10:02 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 13:40 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 12:14 | −0.19 | −0.23 | −0.07 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 15:58 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:43 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Krejci C | 16:35 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 18:31 | −0.32 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 60:00 | −0.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.