EDM beat PIT 2–1 in overtime. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl scored at 2:37 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Mike Smith saved 3.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:21 | EDM | Colby Cave from Matt Benning, Markus Granlund | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 13:14 |  PIT | Brian DumoulinSH from Bryan Rust | 1–1 | 15% → 50% |
| OT 2:37 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl unassisted | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby Cave C | 11:41 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:27 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.09 | +0.45 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Markus Granlund C | 11:53 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Ethan Bear D | 20:25 | +0.19 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:59 | −0.09 | +0.22 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Persson D | 15:38 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 12:09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 11:37 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 20:46 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 13:26 | −0.26 | +0.15 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:09 | −0.30 | +0.37 | −0.71 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Patrick Russell R | 13:01 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gaetan Haas C | 8:45 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 13:50 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 27:42 | −0.43 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 22:31 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 13:09 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 14:43 | −0.57 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 62:37 | +3.90 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Dumoulin D | 23:08 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.81 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 13:28 | +0.26 | +0.30 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 12:30 | +0.22 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:42 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 20:02 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:35 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 12:17 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 12:05 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 10:32 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 14:27 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 13:27 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 11:03 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 28:55 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 23:31 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 14:15 | −0.54 | −0.21 | −0.49 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:45 | −0.65 | +0.19 | −0.89 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:17 | −0.69 | −0.05 | −0.62 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:52 | −0.73 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 62:37 | +1.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.