CGY beat NSH 6–5 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CGY 2.4, NSH 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Matthew Tkachuk scored at 4:58 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Pekka Rinne allowed 3.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:33 | NSH | Nick Bonino from Craig Smith, Ryan Ellis | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:15 | NSH | Austin Watson from Colton Sissons, Matt Irwin | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 15:27 | CGY | Derek Ryan from Matthew Tkachuk, Noah Hanifin | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P2 4:36 | NSH | Calle JarnkrokSH from Austin Watson | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 18:52 | NSH | Calle JarnkrokSH from Austin Watson | 1–4 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 1:58 | CGY | Rasmus Andersson from Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan | 2–4 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 13:38 | CGY | Elias Lindholm from Sean Monahan | 3–4 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 16:39 | CGY | Alan Quine from Mark Giordano, Derek Ryan | 4–4 | 9% → 49% |
| P3 18:38 | NSH | Austin Watson from Colton Sissons, Mattias Ekholm | 4–5 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 19:21 | CGY | Matthew TkachukPP from Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau | 5–5 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 4:58 | CGY | Matthew Tkachuk from Elias Lindholm, TJ Brodie | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 23:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.57 | +0.25 | +1.28 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 19:49 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.18 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 23:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.18 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Derek Ryan C | 10:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.04 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Alan Quine C | 8:32 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.83 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 25:13 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.13 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 21:34 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Frolik R | 11:48 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 13:39 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 8:47 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 12:15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 23:20 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 9:21 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 21:04 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:20 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 22:35 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 10:58 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 22:52 | 3 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 64:10 | −2.21 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Watson L | 13:39 | 2 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.06 | +1.54 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:39 | 2 | +1.51 | −0.18 | +1.71 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 18:53 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.20 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 19:43 | +0.18 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 25:11 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 10:18 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 14:04 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:32 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 25:40 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 17:54 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Matt Irwin D | 10:06 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 19:12 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:53 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 12:24 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 11:59 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:27 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 24:34 | −0.44 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 16:46 | −0.50 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 64:58 | −3.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.