FLA beat COL 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 3.2, COL 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau scored at 0:29 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:05 |  COL | Matt NietoSH from Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Matt Calvert | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:59 | FLA | Colton Sceviour from Aaron Ekblad, MacKenzie Weegar | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:28 | COL | Joonas Donskoi from Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 7:37 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Ian Cole, Nazem Kadri | 1–3 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 12:04 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Keith Yandle, Mike Hoffman | 2–3 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 18:30 | FLA | Jonathan HuberdeauPP from Aaron Ekblad, Evgenii Dadonov | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 0:29 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Aleksander Barkov | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 20:34 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.08 | +1.58 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 14:19 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.10 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.06 | +0.62 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Brian Boyle C | 13:12 | +0.24 | +0.31 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 18:15 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 9:15 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 14:41 | +0.04 | +0.21 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 25:15 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Malgin C | 14:53 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jayce Hawryluk R | 9:24 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:36 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 20:06 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 20:18 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 14:59 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 12:57 | −0.45 | +0.32 | −0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 15:17 | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 20:21 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.14 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 59:48 | +0.01 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Nieto L | 16:03 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.16 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 19:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.09 | +0.53 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 18:44 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.09 | +0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 20:30 | +0.17 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 17:29 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayson Megna C | 5:48 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 23:26 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 16:04 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Mark Barberio D | 14:37 | −0.21 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Kamenev C | 9:54 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:24 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 24:25 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 10:22 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 18:33 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 15:55 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:03 | −0.41 | −0.20 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 18:32 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:29 | −0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.