WSH beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 3.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alex Ovechkin scored on the power play at 4:00 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:40 | TOR | Andreas Johnsson from Auston Matthews | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:47 |  WSH | John Carlson from Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 7:59 | WSH | John CarlsonPP from Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom | 2–1 | 53% → 68% |
| P2 19:27 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Tyson Barrie, Morgan Rielly | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 1:46 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from William Nylander, Mitch Marner | 2–3 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 4:10 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom | 3–3 | 21% → 47% |
| OT 4:00 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Dmitry Orlov, Jakub Vrana | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson D | 27:58 | 2 | +1.98 | +0.40 | +1.38 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 25:53 | 2 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.21 | +0.69 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 23:32 | 3 | +0.32 | +0.29 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.09 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 14:12 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 9:18 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 3:34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:12 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 24:08 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 12:32 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 5:21 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 16:59 | −0.07 | +0.24 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 12:52 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 18:18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 14:30 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michal Kempny D | 18:26 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 19:01 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 19:43 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 13:39 | −0.42 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 63:59 | −0.27 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 22:12 | 2 | 1 | +1.14 | −0.20 | +1.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 19:36 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.03 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 13:53 | +0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 20:15 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Shore C | 7:53 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 10:27 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:36 | +0.03 | +0.22 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 4:22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmytro Timashov L | 7:32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 9:53 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:03 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 12:56 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 24:15 | −0.11 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:36 | −0.20 | +0.21 | −0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 25:35 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.26 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 33:16 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 20:25 | −0.51 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 21:26 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.21 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 64:00 | −0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.