CGY beat FLA 6–5 in a shootout. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Bennett scored on the power play at 17:17 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 9% to 51%. Sergei Bobrovsky allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:43 | CGY | Austin Czarnik from TJ Brodie, Milan Lucic | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 4:28 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Aleksander Barkov | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 11:59 | CGY | Matthew Tkachuk from Michael Frolik, TJ Brodie | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 15:15 | FLA | MacKenzie Weegar from Aleksander Barkov | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 0:32 | CGY | Matthew Tkachuk from Michael Frolik, Mark Giordano | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 5:16 | CGY | Mark GiordanoPP from Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan | 2–4 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 6:20 | FLA | Joshua BrownSH from Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov | 3–4 | 5% → 15% |
| P3 8:41 | FLA | Evgenii DadonovSH from Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov | 4–4 | 17% → 47% |
| P3 14:59 | FLA | Mark PysykSH from Denis Malgin, Frank Vatrano | 5–4 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 17:17 | CGY | Sam BennettPP from Andrew Mangiapane, Travis Hamonic | 5–5 | 9% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:49 | 1 | +0.96 | −0.01 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 10:38 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.02 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 11:09 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.08 | +0.86 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:40 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.04 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.00 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.32 |
| Keith Yandle D | 22:58 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 14:22 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 21:20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 27:24 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 16:07 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 12:14 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:22 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 14:50 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Riley Stillman D | 14:05 | −0.22 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 14:23 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 14:41 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 18:52 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:59 | 4 | −0.51 | −0.07 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.11 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 64:37 | −2.63 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 18:28 | 2 | +1.69 | −0.05 | +1.30 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.41 | |
| Austin Czarnik C | 9:46 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 26:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.18 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sean Monahan C | 18:31 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.02 | −0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.06 | +0.67 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 14:31 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.06 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 20:39 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 23:35 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:32 | +0.02 | +0.23 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:04 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 21:03 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 19:05 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 16:09 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:57 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 11:39 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Oliver Kylington D | 13:45 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:13 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.19 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 15:16 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 11:56 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 65:00 | −1.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.