TOR beat BOS 4–3 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Morgan Rielly scored at 3:54 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Frederik Andersen saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:55 |  TOR | Morgan Rielly from Mitch Marner, Andreas Johnsson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:44 | TOR | Dmytro Timashov from Frederik Gauthier | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P1 19:39 | BOS | Jake DeBrusk from Charlie Coyle, Chris Wagner | 1–2 | 15% → 28% |
| P3 1:36 | BOS | Danton HeinenPP from Brett Ritchie, David Pastrnak | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 2:37 | TOR | Alexander Kerfoot from Jake Muzzin, Ilya Mikheyev | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 15:34 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| OT 3:54 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 24:10 | 1 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.20 | +0.73 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 21:13 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.08 | +0.36 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 15:02 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.07 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:13 | +0.27 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Par Lindholm C | 10:51 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 15:51 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 11:25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 27:28 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:40 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Karson Kuhlman C | 9:19 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 6:42 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 14:12 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 22:44 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:44 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 15:33 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Torey Krug D | 23:30 | −0.42 | −0.24 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 22:38 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.07 | −0.48 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 21:38 | 1 | −0.68 | +0.13 | −0.82 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 63:43 | −1.30 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Rielly D | 25:59 | 2 | +1.81 | +0.26 | +1.55 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmytro Timashov L | 11:53 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:34 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.10 | +0.66 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 23:12 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:55 | +0.06 | +0.19 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 13:16 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 17:06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 9:11 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 21:08 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.22 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 27:01 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 21:03 | −0.21 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederik Gauthier C | 9:54 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 25:48 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 15:26 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 10:36 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nicholas Shore C | 8:36 | −0.35 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 11:43 | −0.45 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:22 | 1 | −0.73 | −0.10 | −0.47 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 63:54 | +1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.