PIT beat COL 3–2 in overtime. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Tanev scored short-handed at 3:57 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:16 | COL | Matt Calvert from Matt Nieto, Ian Cole | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 17:22 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Justin Schultz, Marcus Pettersson | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 15:30 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Sidney Crosby, Dominik Simon | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 2:56 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Mikko Rantanen | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| OT 3:57 | PIT | Brandon TanevSH unassisted | 2–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Calvert L | 12:02 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.07 | +0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 13:54 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Cale Makar D | 23:53 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:28 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 11:30 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 15:53 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 12:01 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 22:19 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 14:14 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 18:00 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 23:49 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 14:10 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 20:45 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:26 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 22:38 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 14:57 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:32 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 13:39 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 63:57 | +0.04 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tanev L | 17:05 | 1 | +1.21 | +0.19 | +0.69 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 24:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.16 | +0.30 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Joseph Blandisi C | 9:18 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 19:07 | +0.13 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 17:47 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 17:44 | +0.09 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 18:52 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 16:11 | +0.03 | +0.24 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.06 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 19:00 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 18:35 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 23:45 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.32 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Juuso Riikola D | 6:27 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Johnson C | 5:15 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 14:57 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:40 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 20:11 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kahun C | 10:35 | −0.25 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:58 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 63:57 | +0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.