WPG beat PIT 4–1. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers scored at 9:55 of the first, moving WPG’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:32 |  PIT | Sidney Crosby from Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:48 | WPG | Ville Heinola from Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 9:55 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 0:54 | WPG | Tucker Poolman from Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele | 3–1 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 11:31 | WPG | Neal Pionk from Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele | 4–1 | 85% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Poolman D | 17:09 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.04 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:51 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.02 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 25:53 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.09 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ville Heinola D | 17:23 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Bourque L | 10:11 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 12:30 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sami Niku D | 17:01 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 14:16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 11:27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Carl Dahlstrom D | 24:19 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:49 | 3 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 17:30 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 12:15 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 12:15 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:24 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Anthony Bitetto D | 18:03 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 16:42 | 3 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 17:02 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +2.68 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:05 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.14 | +0.47 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 16:43 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 2:50 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 10:30 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 11:59 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 24:12 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 13:37 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 20:45 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kahun C | 12:42 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 17:52 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 18:48 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 15:30 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 19:22 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 16:50 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:09 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 18:06 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 20:09 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:51 | 1 | −0.73 | +0.11 | −0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:00 | −2.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.